Police Strengths and the 2015 UK Election

As the general election starts to approach I thought it might be useful to take a look at police strengths since 1978 when I joined the Metropolitan Police.  It took a while to find all the figures, so I hope you find them interesting.

Today in the UK (beginning of 2015) there are about 223 police officers for every 100,000 people. That’s about 1 police officer for every 448 people you walk buy along the High Street.

Back in ’78 when I joined up the population of England and Wales was approximately 49 million, which gives us 1 police officer for every 459 people, so after 37 years we’re almost back to where we started!

Here’s how things have changed for the police population ratio using the year I joined plus the following census years and 2013, the last available estimate of population.

• 1978 49 million population - 1 Police officer for every 459 people
• 1981 49.6 million population - 1 Police officer for every 425 people
• 1991 50.7 million population - 1 Police officer for every 404 people
• 2001 52.4 million population - 1 Police officer for every 417 people
• 2011 56.1 million population - 1 Police officer for every 412 people
• 2013 57 million population - 1 Police officer for every 444 people

The numbers of crimes that the police have to handle (let’s call it workload) has also changed over these years as the population has increased, crime levels have gone up and then come down again, mirrored by police strengths.

Here’s how things have changed for workload

• 1981 Police recorded crime approx 3 million – 25.7 crimes per police officer
• 1992 Police recorded crime approx 5.7 million – 45.4 crimes per police officer
• 2003 Police recorded crime approx 6 million – 45 crimes per police officer
• 2014 Police recorded crime approx 3.7 million – 28.9 crimes per police officer

The years above are significant as you can see in the main table below:

The saving grace for government (of all colours) has been the huge reduction of most crime categories since the mid 1990s when the Crime Survey for England and Wales estimated about 19 million crimes per year. It now stands at about 7.1 million. Police recorded crime has also reduced enormously from around 6 million at its peak in 2003 to about 3.7 million today, so it’s no wonder why the current government has seen an opportunity to reduce police numbers.

It seems that the NHS is going to be the single most important political issue for this election, so don’t be surprised to see police numbers falling still further, to under 115,000 by the end of the next parliament (whoever gets in). This, of course, means that we will have to be even more responsible for our own security needs and that’s why I shall be writing huge amounts of new material to help you.

Here’s the data I collected 

Police Strength in England and Wales since 1978 plus Population Levels and other Points of Interest
	Police Officers
1978	106,732	When I joined the Met Police!
1979	109,653	Margaret Thatcher becomes Prime Minister
1981	116,590	Huge police pay increase
1981	11 million crimes estimated by British Crime Survey Just less than 3 million crimes recorded by the police (25.7 crimes per police officer)
1981 Population	49.6 million - England and Wales = 1 police officer per 425 people
1985	118,620	Highest ‘Crime Survey’ crime levels ever recorded
1991 Population	50.7 million - England and Wales = 1 police officer per 404 people
1991	125,453
1992	125,570	Highest police recorded crime levels (about 5.7 million) using the old counting rules (45.4 crimes per police officer)
1990	124,834
1997	125,051	Tony Blair becomes Prime Minister
2000	122,230
2001	125,519
2001 Population	52.4 million - England and Wales = 1 police officer per 417 people
2003	133,366	Highest police recorded crime levels (about 6 million) using the new counting rules (45 crimes per police officer)
	Police Officers	PCSOs	Specials	Total
March 2008	141,859	15,805	14,547	172,211
Sept 2008	142,684	15,740	14,459	172,883
March 2009	143,770	16,507	14,251	174,528
Sept 2009	144,833	16,814	14,516	176,163
March 2010	143,734	16,918	15,505	176,157
May 2010		David Cameron becomes Prime Minister
Sept 2010	142,363	16,376	16,772	175,511
March 2011	139,110	15,820	18,421	173,351
Sept 2011	136,261	15,469	19,366	171,096
2011 Population	56.1 million – England and Wales = 1 police officer per 412 people
March 2012	134,101	14,393	20,343	168,837
Sept 2012	132,235	14,411	19,159	165,805
2013 Population	57 million - England and Wales = 1 police officer per 444 people (Latest available data)
March 2013	129,584	14,205	19,011	162,800
Sept 2013	128,351	13,552	18,068	159,971
March 2014	127,909	13,066	17,789	158,764
June 2014	Lowest crime level estimate (7.1 million) since the crime survey began in 1981! 3.7 million offences recorded by police (28.9 crimes per police officer)
	Police Officers	PCSOs	Specials	Total
Change since March 2010	- 15,825 - 11%	- 3,852 - 23%	+ 2,284 + 15%	- 17,393 - 10%